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Could Trump’s tariff threats force Putin into Ukraine peace deal?

Russia’s approach is to ‘keep calm and carry on’ in the face of Trump’s threats over Ukraine war, experts say.

United States President Donald Trump threatened to impose “very severe tariffs” on Russia on Monday if a peace agreement to end the Ukraine war is not reached in the next 50 days.

Trump has also unveiled a new agreement to supply Ukraine with more weapons.

On the campaign trail ahead of last year’s presidential election, Trump boasted that he would end the war in Ukraine within his first 24 hours in office.

However, after at least six phone conversations between Trump and his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, as well as several meetings between US officials and officials from Russia and Ukraine, no ceasefire deal has been reached.

In May, Putin refused to travel to Istanbul to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for peace talks. The two countries sent delegations instead, resulting in prisoner exchange agreements, only.

So, will Trump’s latest threat convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to change his stance on Ukraine?

What did Trump say about Russia and Ukraine this week?

Weapons for Ukraine
At a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office on Monday, Trump said he was “disappointed” in Putin and that Ukraine would receive billions of dollars’ worth of US weapons.

“We’re going to make top-of-the-line weapons, and they’ll be sent to NATO,” Trump said, adding that NATO would pay for them. He added that this would include the Patriot air defence missiles that Ukraine has sought urgently.

“We have one country that has 17 Patriots getting ready to be shipped … We’re going to work a deal where the 17 will go, or a big portion of the 17 will go to the war site,” Trump said.

New tariffs for Russian goods

Trump said if Putin fails to sign a peace deal with Ukraine within 50 days of Monday this week, he will impose “very severe” trade tariffs on Russia, as well as secondary tariffs on other countries.

“We’re going to be doing secondary tariffs,” Trump said. “If we don’t have a deal in 50 days, it’s very simple, and they’ll be at 100 percent.”

Since the start of the Ukraine war, the US and its allies have imposed at least 21,692 separate sanctions on Russian individuals, media organisations and institutions, targeting sectors including the military, energy, aviation, shipbuilding and telecommunications.

While the trade relationship between US and Russia might be relatively marginal, “secondary tariffs” – first threatened by Trump in March but not implemented – would affect countries such as India and China purchasing Russian oil.

In 2024, Russian oil made up 35 percent of India’s total crude imports and 19 percent of China’s oil imports. Turkiye also relies heavily on Russian oil, sourcing up to 58 percent of its refined petroleum imports from Russia in 2023.

Some Western countries could also be hit by secondary tariffs. In 2024, European countries spent more than $700m on Russian uranium products, according to an analysis by the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, which used data from the European Union’s statistical office, Eurostat.

How has Russia responded to Trump’s latest threats?
Putin has not responded personally.

However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday: “The US president’s statements are very serious. Some of them are addressed personally to President Putin. We certainly need time to analyse what was said in Washington.”

Peskov stated, however, that decisions made in Washington and other NATO countries were “perceived by the Ukrainian side not as a signal for peace, but as a signal to continue the war”.

Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and current deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, wrote in an X post on Tuesday that Russia did not care about Trump’s “theatrical ultimatum”.

Sergei Ryabkov, a senior Russian diplomat, said on Tuesday: “We first and foremost note that any attempts to make demands – especially ultimatums – are unacceptable for us,” Russia’s TASS news agency reported.

The Russian stock market appeared untroubled by Trump’s threat, rising 2.7 percent on Monday, according to the Moscow Stock Exchange.

The Russian rouble initially lost value against the US dollar but then recovered after Trump threatened new tariffs on Russia. According to data from financial analysis group LSEG, the rouble was just 0.2 percent weaker at the end of the day, trading at 78.10 to the US dollar after weakening to 78.75 earlier in the day.

The rouble gained 0.9 percent to 10.87 against the Chinese yuan, the most traded foreign currency in Russia. This was after it had weakened by more than 1 percent on Friday.

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