News about Japan

[Tom MoodyParticipant]

Election to test Ishiba’s ability to build a strong political base

The Oct. 27 general election — the first nationwide vote since a slush funds scandal was uncovered within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party — comes as an early test of the leadership of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is already grappling with a fragile party support base and public skepticism.
Following in the steps of his predecessors, Ishiba chose to launch the party’s campaign in Iwaki, Fukushima Prefecture, one of the areas hit hardest by the Great East Japan Earthquake of March 2011 and its aftermath.

”Without the reconstruction of Fukushima, there can be no recovery for the Tohoku region; without the recovery of Tohoku, there can be no revival of Japan,” Ishiba said, offering his apologies for the slush funds scandal. “I’m here to bet on the birth of a new Japan, together with the Noto region.”

The Noto region has itself been grappling with the effects of a Jan. 1 earthquake and severe rains in September.

During the 12-day election campaign, Ishiba faces the daunting tasks of mitigating the reputational damage caused by the recent scandal and persuading the public that the LDP is still the best party to lead the country, all while solidifying his own leadership.

In a bid to move on from the scandal, the LDP leadership has pulled endorsements of 12 party members embroiled in the scandal.

A majority of these lawmakers once belonged to a faction led by the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — Ishiba’s fiercest political rival. In last month’s LDP presidential election, many of them explicitly supported former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, who is far from being on good terms with Ishiba.

In a sign of his weak support base, Ishiba won the presidential election by a narrow margin among members of parliament. In the first round of voting, Takaichi surprisingly performed more strongly than Ishiba even among the party’s local chapters, which have long been seen as staunch supporters of Ishiba.

Subsequently offered the position of chairperson of the party’s general council, Takaichi reportedly rejected it.

Despite the removal of the endorsements — based on criteria that many have called opaque — Ishiba has said that the LDP might reintegrate these lawmakers into the party if the candidates win their contests.

Ishiba’s fumbling over the announcement of a general election — he announced his intention to declare one earlier than he had indicated he would — and his tip-toeing over some of the proposals he brought forward during the LDP presidential race has sparked public criticism.

Despite the wide popularity he enjoyed among the public throughout his career, early approval ratings have indicated that they are still lukewarm toward the new government. In a Kyodo News poll conducted over the weekend, public approval for the new administration stood at 42.0%, over 8 percentage points lower than a survey conducted in early October.

The ruling LDP-Komeito coalition has set a low bar for the election, indicating that it aims to maintain a simple majority in parliament. In the last four Lower House elections, the LDP was able to obtain a comfortable majority on its own without relying on its junior coalition partner.

“He should have pushed through with the nonendorsements listening to the public’s reception,” said veteran election strategist Hiroshi Miura. “Instead, not only did he leave the public puzzled, it also invited the rancor of some of his party members.”

The election will also offer clues on whether Ishiba’s political gamble will pay off in the long-term.

A poor showing might raise worries ahead of next year’s Upper House and Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections, and exacerbate Ishiba’s precarious standing within the party. On the other hand, a positive outcome might give Ishiba much needed political capital and help him stabilize his leadership, at least in the short term.

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